Comments on: Sniping on eBay — economic phenomenon, and almost strategic fallacy http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/ John Joseph Bachir's blog Wed, 20 Aug 2008 14:05:52 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.1 By: Bill http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-222451 Bill Sun, 20 Apr 2008 18:24:32 +0000 http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-222451 I'm a sniper I admit it... My strategy is ususally to feel out where the bidding currently lies with a product... so I will bid it up until the current bidder is replace by me. I then watch to see if they come back in an outbid me. If they do, that sends the signal to me that they are trying to get the item for a lesser price and want to play the back and forth bidding game. I will then periodically watch the item for other bidders and I set my no regret price on my snipe software (I use Gixen to do mine - there's a review on my site) If I'm lucky I will win the item and in most cases this strategy has been pretty successful for me. It helps me figure out whether the current bidders are experienced snipers... It helps me figure out if the price is going to be above what I believe I am willing to pay and it helps me set my no regret price.. Also keep in mind shipping. I always add shipping to the bid when figuring my no regret price and if the seller doesn't tell me what it is I will always ask. I’m a sniper I admit it… My strategy is ususally to feel out where the bidding currently lies with a product… so I will bid it up until the current bidder is replace by me. I then watch to see if they come back in an outbid me. If they do, that sends the signal to me that they are trying to get the item for a lesser price and want to play the back and forth bidding game.

I will then periodically watch the item for other bidders and I set my no regret price on my snipe software (I use Gixen to do mine - there’s a review on my site) If I’m lucky I will win the item and in most cases this strategy has been pretty successful for me.

It helps me figure out whether the current bidders are experienced snipers… It helps me figure out if the price is going to be above what I believe I am willing to pay and it helps me set my no regret price..

Also keep in mind shipping. I always add shipping to the bid when figuring my no regret price and if the seller doesn’t tell me what it is I will always ask.

]]> By: John http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-217109 John Sun, 28 Oct 2007 22:59:27 +0000 http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-217109 And further, eBay may be better off if it somehow designed the system to discourage sniping. Because as you said, it lowers the closing price, and they benefit from higher closing prices (at least, when they take a cut. maybe they also benefit from lower closing prices because it makes the concept of auctions on eBay more popular). But somehow I still feel like we'd all be better off with less sniping. It could probably be tamed a bit with some simple rules, like no more than 1 bid per minute. And further, eBay may be better off if it somehow designed the system to discourage sniping. Because as you said, it lowers the closing price, and they benefit from higher closing prices (at least, when they take a cut. maybe they also benefit from lower closing prices because it makes the concept of auctions on eBay more popular).

But somehow I still feel like we’d all be better off with less sniping. It could probably be tamed a bit with some simple rules, like no more than 1 bid per minute.

]]> By: John http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-217103 John Sun, 28 Oct 2007 22:55:31 +0000 http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-217103 Josh-- In case I'm not being clear: I agree that sniping is basically always the best strategy. :) Josh–

In case I’m not being clear: I agree that sniping is basically always the best strategy. :)

]]> By: josh http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-214731 josh Thu, 25 Oct 2007 00:40:56 +0000 http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-214731 yeah - I have, um, sniped before, and it works pretty well. Bidding your no-regret price may not have negative consequences for you when considered in isolation, but it has positive consequences for the seller, doesn't it? If all the bidders where snipers, you gotta believe the average closing price would drop, no? So, by bidding your no-regret price, you join a team of bidders who work to raise the closing price, right? As a buyer, isn't that negative? I know that others (probably including you) have applied a fair amount of analytical rigor on this subject, and I certainly haven't, but it sure seems that way to me. yeah - I have, um, sniped before, and it works pretty well. Bidding your no-regret price may not have negative consequences for you when considered in isolation, but it has positive consequences for the seller, doesn’t it? If all the bidders where snipers, you gotta believe the average closing price would drop, no? So, by bidding your no-regret price, you join a team of bidders who work to raise the closing price, right? As a buyer, isn’t that negative? I know that others (probably including you) have applied a fair amount of analytical rigor on this subject, and I certainly haven’t, but it sure seems that way to me.

]]> By: John http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-214025 John Tue, 23 Oct 2007 23:16:42 +0000 http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-214025 The likelihood of a particular bid affecting the perceived value of an item varies wildly from auction to auction. If your bid does not affect the perceived value, then bidding your maximum no-regret price at any time has no negative consequences. And even if it does affect the perceived value, as long as your own perceived value does not change, you will of course not ever pay more for an item then you want to. Of course, you might pay more than you could have, or you might lose an auction when you otherwise might not have. So, the system is very, very heavily weighted toward encouraging sniping on most non-commodity auctions. The likelihood of a particular bid affecting the perceived value of an item varies wildly from auction to auction.

If your bid does not affect the perceived value, then bidding your maximum no-regret price at any time has no negative consequences.

And even if it does affect the perceived value, as long as your own perceived value does not change, you will of course not ever pay more for an item then you want to. Of course, you might pay more than you could have, or you might lose an auction when you otherwise might not have.

So, the system is very, very heavily weighted toward encouraging sniping on most non-commodity auctions.

]]> By: josh http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-213983 josh Tue, 23 Oct 2007 22:05:40 +0000 http://blog.johnjosephbachir.org/2007/10/21/sniping-on-ebay-economic-phenomenon-and-almost-strategic-fallacy/#comment-213983 It seems like the chances of getting sniped are pretty high for most items that get any bids. Doesn't that mean that, by putting in your max price, the likelihood is great that either you'll pay it, or you won't win? It seems like the chances of getting sniped are pretty high for most items that get any bids. Doesn’t that mean that, by putting in your max price, the likelihood is great that either you’ll pay it, or you won’t win?

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